澄清对养老金替代率的误解

    Clarifying Misunderstanding of Pension Replacement Rate
    基金：本文获教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地项目（10JJD790037）、教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目（10YJA910008）和国家自然科学基金项目（71173230）的资助.
    摘要：养老金替代率是养老金与工资的比例，是国际上通用的衡量养老金待遇水平的指标，常用于对制度待遇充足性的评估和国际比较研究。在我国，相关文献和实践中常用平均替代率衡量替代率的平均水平，基本观点是：我国养老金替代率持续降低，已低于国际警戒水平和制度设定的目标替代水平，从而建议持续提高养老金待遇。本文对养老金替代率的内涵、口径和计算方法做了系统梳理和对比分析，通过随机模拟，给出了在我国社会养老保险下，不同类型人群替代率的分布以及替代率高于临界值的概率，澄清了当前对平均替代率存在的误解，运用因素分解法探讨了平均替代率的影响因素，分析了平均替代率在度量替代率平均水平时存在的偏差，指出中位替代率是更合适的替代率平均水平度量指标。
    Pension replacement rate measuring the pension level is defined as the ratio of pension income to working income. This indicator has been widely computed for the assessment of adequacy of pension systems and international comparisons. In some literature, the indicator of average replacement rate is adopted to measure the average level of replacement rate in China. These studies show that the pension replacement rate has been decreasing to below the international warning level or target level, and thus propose to improve the benefit accordingly. This paper examines the concept, scope and computing method of alternative pension replacement rates systematically. Based on stochastic simulation, the distribution of replacement rate for different types of people is described and the probability of achieving the target replacement rate is given. The misunderstanding of average replaeement rate is clarified. By applying the method of factor decomposition, factors influencing average replacement rate are investigated and deviation of this indicator in measuring the average level of replacement rate is analyzed. Moreover, this paper indicates that median replacement rate is more appropriate in measuring the average level of replacement rate.
    关 键 词：养老保险 个人替代率 平均替代率 随机模拟 工资中位数
    Pension System Individual Replacement Rate Average Replacement Rate Stochastic Simulation Median Wage
    分 类 号：C812