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There are plenty of reasons this may seem like an inauspicious time for Gates, 52, to be leaving his life's work behind. This spring Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500), led by Ballmer, failed to consummate a big deal with Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500), which it now seems to have pushed into the arms of archrival Google (GOOG, Fortune 500). Last year's rollout of the latest version of Windows, called Vista, was a public relations and consumer marketing disaster. The rest of the software industry, meanwhile, is either supporting its products with advertising, like Google, or starting to rent them as online services. Microsoft has yet to gain traction in either business.
And then there's Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500). From the iPod to the iMac to the iPhone, its products have cornered the market on cool. Apple's small share of the PC market in the U.S. is growing fast - it was 7.4% in the first quarter of 2008, up from 5.1% a year earlier, according to International Data Corp. (IDC). Perhaps even more alarming, its ubiquitous "Get a Mac" TV ads have painted the personal computer loaded with Windows software - the central achievement of Gates' 33 years at Microsoft - as a loser. To a lot of consumers out there, Microsoft really does seem like that bumbling nebbish played by Daily Show contributor John Hodgman.
But despite setbacks, despite image problems, and despite Google, Microsoft is in many ways stronger than it has ever been. Just look at the numbers. Revenues grew 18% in the just-ending June 2008 fiscal year. And net profit is up even more, rising 27% to a stunning $18 billion, according to the consensus of Wall Street analysts who follow the company.
From this position of financial strength, the software giant is going on the offensive. In interviews with Microsoft's leadership, it is clear that those pesky Mac ads have managed to shake some complacency out of the company. Sometime later this year, Microsoft will launch a rebranding campaign for Windows, its core product. It's Ballmer's answer to "Get a Mac." And while Yahoo may have turned down Ballmer's $47.5 billion acquisition bid, the CEO says he'll spend as much as it takes to build a business that challenges Google on the web. The famously competitive Gates may be leaving, but Ballmer insists Microsoft will be no less aggressive without him.