近年生育率显著“回升”的由来——对2006年人口和计划生育调查的评价研究

    摘要: 文章用2006年全国人口和计划生育调查公开出版的数据资料对该调查所反映的"近年生育率回升"结果进行了研究与分析。通过对该调查的抽样方法、样本分布等方面的研究讨论及与2005年全国1%人口抽样调查结果的比较,可以断定2006年调查在抽取样本上明显有偏,偏重反映了新近结婚并在户籍地怀孕、生育、哺育的育龄妇女,但严重遗漏了年轻、未婚的育龄妇女。因此,该调查显示的"近年生育率回升"主要是由于调查偏差所致,并不能代表全国的生育情况。文章分析了已婚总和生育率和常规总和生育率之间在水平及年龄模式上的差别,指出这两种口径的统计结果之间无可比性。
    关键词: 总和生育率； 已婚生育率； 样本偏差； 总体代表性
     
    How Come the Notable "Pick Up" of the Fertility-rates in Recent Years:Evaluation on the 2006 National Population and Family Planning Survey
    Abstract: This paper analyses the reasons of the notable "pick up"of the fertility in recent years shown by the 2006 national population and family planning survey based upon the published summary data of this survey.Through discussing the methods used by this survey, analyzing the sample composition,and comparing them to those from the 2005 national 1% population sam pling survey,it turns out that the 2006 survey sample is badly biased,which over-draw the women newly married and just delivered,but under-draw the women at young age and unmarried.Therefore,the"pick up" of the fertility in the recent year shown by this survey is resulted by its sampling bias, and such statistics cannot represent the situation of population.This study also shows the differences in levels and age-patterns between the total fertility rate and the total married fertility rate,and argues that there is little comparability between the two indexes.
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2009年第2期