从六普和联合国对中国人口的预测看我国人口的未来

    摘要：几乎在六普数据公布的同时，联合国公布了《世界人口前景2010修订本》，其中包含对中国人口的评估和预测作出了重大调整。本文通过对六普数据和联合国人口预测的比较，探讨我国人口变化的轨迹和未来。尽管联合国调低了我国近几年的生育水平，其预测依然高估我国人口的总量尤其是少儿人口的总量，低估我国老年化的速度。联合国预测表明我国快速迈向老龄社会大势已定、无法逆转，生育率能否尽快走出低谷将是决定我国人口未来的关键。鉴于中国生育率低于更替水平已达 20 年之久，现在已经到1.5以下，再不调整计划生育政策，极有可能掉入“低生育水平的陷阱”。通过了解联合国人口预测的变化和方法，我们看到，人口预测应该只是人口决策的参考而不应该是人口决策的目标。人口决策应该以人为本，而不是以数为本。
     
    China’s Demographic Future as Seen from UN’s Projections and the Sixth Population Census of China            Abstract: The United Nation’s World Population Prospects the 2010 revision, prepared by its Population Division has made major adjustments in its population estimates and projections for China, based on a new Bayesian fertility projection model. According to UN’s new projection, China’s population will peak in 2026 at 1.396 billion, followed by a rapid decline to 1.295 billion by 2050. UN’s projection demonstrates that China is moving rapidly to an aging society and China’s demographic future will be determined by whether it will be able to raise its fertility in the next few decades. By examining UN’s population projections on China and referring to the 2010 Population Census of China, we argue that, while population projection is a valuable tool in understanding demographic dynamics, it should never be used to dictate population policy. Population policy should focus on people, not numbers.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第一章