六普结果表明以往人口估计和预测严重失误

    摘要： 文章以六普人口年龄结构为标准,模拟过去20年人口进程及其主要人口指标,然后与其他来源的人口指标进行了比较和分析。根据六普结果可以判断,1990～2010年间的人口估计和预测存在的普遍问题是高估了出生人口数量,高估了生育水平,高估了人口增长,从而低估了人口老龄化程度。研究发现,由于高估出生和生育水平而导致的过分的统计调整,造成的偏差幅度甚至远远超过了原始调查统计的偏差,形成了严重的误导。这种状况反映出多年来人口统计上的迷茫,思想认识脱离实际。
    关键词: 六普； 模拟预测； 人口指标； 统计调整； 偏差
     
    2010 Population Census Data Indicates Serious Miscount in Past Population Estimation and Projection
    Abstract: This study conducts projection to the size and age structure of 2010 population census and obtains simulative demographic indices since 1990.Comparing the simulated with statistics from other sources,it turns out that population estimation and projection in past 20 years shared a common defect of which birth number,population growth and fertility level were badly over-estimated.As a result,the population ageing has been significantly underrated.Some adjusted indices produced even larger bias than the original ones,and this mislead to a wrong direction.Such phenomena reflect strong biased orientation in demographic study for the past 20 years.
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2011年第6期