调整人口政策对中国长期潜在增长率的影响

    内容提要：根据国家统计局调整后的最新数据，并考虑到劳动参与率和自然失业率的人口结构特征，本文在Cai & Lu（2013）的模型基础上重新估计了2011-2020年中国的潜在增长率。我们发现，“十二五”期间中国平均潜在增长率为7.55%，“十三五”期间中国平均潜在增长率为6.2%。随着中国人口结构变化对劳动参与率和自然失业率的影响不断增强，中国的平均潜在增长率在2021-2025年将进一步降低到5.41%；2026年以后会低于5%；2040年之后中国的潜在增长率甚至会低于4%。如果放开现有的人口生育政策，使人口的总和生育率能够在短期内提高到1.77以上，虽然在短期内并不能使潜在增长率有所提高，但是将减缓中国长期潜在增长率的递减趋势。
    关键词：人口结构 潜在增长率 劳动参与率 自然失业率
    Relax the One-child policy and the long-term potential growth rate in China
    Abstract: Using a new data set from NBS and a population data set estimated by Guo (2013), we estimate the average annual growth rate of potential output to be 7.55 percent in the 12th Five-year Plan period and 6.2 percent over the 13th Five-year Plan period. The labor force participation rate and nature rate of unemployment is a function of population structure in our model. Due to the fast demographic change in China in the future, the average annual growth rate of potential output will slowdown to 5.41% during 2021 to 2025, and it will slow down to below 5% after 2026, and below 4% after 2040. The long-term potential growth rate will increase if the total fertility rate could in the short turn increase to 1.77 and above.
    Keywords: demographic structure, potential growth rate, labor force participation rate, natural rate of unemployment
    JEL Classification: O47, J21, C53
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    文章出处：劳动经济研究，2013年第1卷第1期