资源产业依赖对中国省域经济增长的影响及其传导机制研究基于空间面板模型的实证考察

    The Effects of the Dependence on Resource-based Industries on Provincial Economic Growth in China and Its Transmission Mechanism：Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Panel Model 
    基金：基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（71003068、71373153）;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划（NCET-13-0890）
    摘要：针对现有研究忽视区域经济增长地理空间效应的重要缺陷，文章首次利用空间计量方法，以1993—2010年我国31个省份的面板数据为研究样本，对资源产业依赖如何影响我国省域经济增长及其传导机制进行了实证考察。结果表明：我国省域经济增长的空间依赖关系表现为正向的溢出效应，从空间经济视角经验考察资源诅咒命题是必要的；在考虑经济增长空间相关性之后，资源诅咒假说和条件收敛假说在我国省域层面均是成立的；资源产业依赖主要通过对技术创新水平和对外开放程度的挤出效应、削弱制造业投入的荷兰病效应以及强化政府干预程度的制度弱化效应对我国省域经济增长产生显著的间接抑制效应，其中荷兰病效应是首要原因。
    Owing to the important defect that current studies ignore the geographical spatial effect of regional economic growth, this paper first employs spatial econometric meth- ods to empirically investigate the effects of the dependence on resource-based industries on provincial economic growth based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1993 to 2010.It reaches the following results： firstly, the spatial dependence of provincial economic growth is featured by the positive spillover effect, so it is necessary to empirically analyze the proposition of resource curse from the spatial economic perspective;secondly, under the con- sideration of spatial correlation of economic growth, both the propositions of resource curse and conditional convergence come true at the provincial level in China; thirdly, the depend- ence on resource-based industries has indirect inhibition effects on provincial economic growth mainly through crowding-out effects on technological innovation and opening-up lev- els,Dutch disease dfect cutting the input in manufacturing, and institution-weakening effect intensifying government intervention, and Dutch disease effect is the most significant reason.
    关 键 词：资源产业依赖 省域经济增长 空间面板模型 资源诅咒 传导机制
    dependence on resource-based industries  provincial economic growth  spatial panel model  resource curse  transmission mechanism
    分 类 号：F062.1F207
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