王广州：中国失独妇女总量、结构及变动趋势计算机仿真研究

    摘要：在回顾以往对独生子女死亡和失独家庭研究的基础上，文章从基本概念、分析方法和关键研究问题等方面指出以往研究中存在的问题，提出终身失独概率估计方法和失独育龄妇女再生育可能性等，指出用独生子女死亡概念近似失独妇女其结果有可能大大高估时期存量失独妇女的总量。由于受计划生育政策影响，中国育龄妇女二孩生育水平和生育模式发生巨大变化，将失独育龄妇女再生育看作是1->2递进生育也有可能高估失独妇女的总量。通过人口普查、抽样调查数据和计算机微观人口系统仿真分析技术，估计目前35岁及以上失独妇女在140万左右，2050年前中国时期失独妇女总量超过600万的可能性不大，失独家庭达到或超过1000万的可能性也不大。
    关键词：失独  独生子女  递进生育  曾生子女
    作者： 王广州 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所，研究员
    Research On the Population Size, Age Structure and Developing Trend of the Lost Only Child Women by Computer Simulation 
    WANG Guangzhou
    (Institute of Population and Labor Economics Research, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, 100028 ) 
    Abstract: Based on reviews of past research on death of only child and their families, this paper pointed out underlying issues of their basic concepts, methods and key research questions, raised estimation methods for losing only child for life time condition probability and losing only child fertile women’s rebirth rate. Total population of women who lost their only child would be considerably overestimated if substituting the concept of one child death with losing only child women, or taking the women birth by 1->2 parity progression (due to dramatic change of fertility level and pattern of the second child under family planning policy). With census, raw data sampling and population micro-simulation system, this paper estimated total population of women above 35 that lost their only child is about 1.4 million in 2015 and unlikely to reach 6 million by the year 2050, whereas the total number of family that lost their only child would not exceed 10 million in 2050.
    Key Words: Lost Only-Child, Only-Child, Parity Progression Fertility, Ever-born Children
    文章出处：人口与经济，2016年第4期；人大报刊复印资料全文转载，2017年第2期