中国城市化水平和速度的再考察

    摘要：关于中国城市化水平和速度的争论颇多，本文试图就这些争论提出自己的判断。依据钱纳里标准和IU、NU比以及与同类国家的比较分析后发现，我国城市化水平相对于经济发展水平和非农化水平而言有所滞后，但滞后的程度较小；当前的城市化速度是与我国经济社会发展阶段相适应的，并未盲目冒进。采用Logistic模型预测分析后发现，未来十五年我国城市化仍将以较快的速度推进，但其发展速度与前十五年相比将有所减缓。估计到2015年，我国的城市化水平将超过50%，2025年将达到60%左右。此后，城市化速度显著减缓，2040年城市化水平将超过65%，2050年达到70%左右。
    关键词：城市化水平；城市化速度；预测
    Re-evaluation on the Level and Pace of China’s Urbanization
    Abstract: There has been much dispute over the level and pace of urbanization in China, this paper tries to make its own judgments on these arguments. Based on Chenery Criterion, IU, NU and comparative analysis on the similar countries, this paper think that China’s level of urbanization is lagging behind the economic development level and non-agricultural level, but the lagging degree is quite little. Currently, China’s urbanization pace is matched well with the actual phase of economic and social development. According to Logistic prediction model, China’s urbanization will continue to advance in the next 15 years, but its pace will a little slower than that in the past 15 years. It is estimated that, China’s urbanization level will be over 50% by 2015, and will reach around 60% in 2025. From then on, the pace of urbanization slowed significantly. In 2040 the urbanization level will be more than 65%, and 70% by 2050.
    Key words: urbanization level; urbanization pace; prediction
    文章出处：城市发展研究，2010年第11期