中国城镇化格局变动与人口合理分布

    摘要: 文章利用不同来源数据研究发现，中国城镇化格局变化主要表现为：“镇”人口扩张对城镇化作用不断增强，呈现出人口聚集“市化”和“镇化”共同驱动特征；城镇人口向东部地区集聚趋势未发生根本改变；城市群吸引人口和经济聚集能力不断增强，正成为推动城镇化的重要力量。基于城市人口规模与位序关系的Zipf律发现，中国目前城市人口规模越大城市人口扩张速度越快，同时城市人口分布逐渐收敛于Zipf律，人口在不同规模城市间的分布正趋于合理；但华中地区大城市发育不足，华南地区中小城市发育不足，其他地区基本呈现向Zipf律收敛的趋势。文章指出，不同空间维度城镇化发展面临的问题与任务是不同的，应实施有差别化的促进政策。
    关键词: 城镇化格局 Zipf律 人口合理分布 城市群
     
    General Trends of Urbanization and Rational Distribution of Urban Population in China
    Abstract: Based on different sources of data, this paper first studies the general trends of urbanization in China, and the findings can be summarized as follows: (1) the current rapid growth of urban population is equally driven by the expansion of urban population living in both towns and cities as the towns are playing more and more important role in urbanization; (2) the trend of urban population agglomeration toward eastern region has not changed significantly yet in spite of the slowing down of population migration from middle and western areas to eastern and coastal areas; (3) the urban groups are emerging as main driving forces for urban population growth in China. From a perspective of Zipf’s law, this paper then discusses the issue of rational distribution of urban population in China, and finds out that the urban size is positively correlated with urban population growth, the larger population size, the faster urban population growth. Nevertheless, the changing trend of urban population distribution is characterized with convergence to Zipf’ law, suggesting that urban population distribution is in general becoming more rational. Finally, this paper explores China’s urban population distribution by regions, and concludes that the big metropolitan cities need to be nurtured in the central region of China while the development of small and middle sized cities should be encouraged in south region of China. All of the findings in this paper might be conducive to policy making in regional planning for urbanization.
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    文章出处：中国人口科学，2012年第6期