中国农村人口老龄化对农业产出影响的量化研究

    摘要: 文章定量测度了1978年以来中国农业产出的特征事实并分析相关要素的影响程度。结果表明,1978～2002年中国农业劳动力相对过剩;2002年以后农村老年人口比重升高与劳动力转移对农业产出产生显著负作用;1990～2009年农村老年人口比重提高与劳动力转移年均对农业劳动投入指数下拉2.262个百分点,尤其2003年以来劳动投入对农业产出的贡献度和贡献率均为负值。
    关键词: 农村人口老龄化； 农村劳动力转移； 农业产出； 贡献率； 零增长
    An Analysis of Rural Population Aging’s Effect on Agricultural Output in China
    Abstract: This paper uses multiple methods to estimate the impact of Chinese rural population aging on agricultural production since 1978.The results show that from 1978 to 2002 there were surplus agricultural labors,after 2002 the increase of rural elderly population and labor transfer have produced a significant negative effect on agricultural output,and from 1990 to 2009 the population aging and labor out-migration had reduced the agricultural labor input index by 2.262 percentage points.Since 2003 labor inputs for both agricultural output contribution and its rate have been negative.
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2011年第2期