人口因素如何影响中国未来经济增长

    摘要:中国过去一直保持10%的经济增长速度,2010年以来人口红利消失后,潜在经济增长率马上降下来。如果我们不接受经济增长速度下降的事实,同时国际上还有强劲需求,那么我们很可能还继续保持很高的增长速度,而导致实际增长率与潜在增长率相偏离。但是欧美金融危机和主权债务危机使得国际需求下降,这反而给我们一个进行速度调整的机会,换句话说就是我国被迫接受调整。这是促进我国经济健康发展的一个意外之喜。因此,不应该通过拉动需求来使经济发展超越潜在增长率,但这并不意味着潜在增长率不可以提高。在人口红利消失、劳动力成本提高的背景下,可以通过提高劳动力供给和提高劳动生产率来提高潜在经济增长率。
    关键词: 人口红利； 潜在经济增长率； 经济增长率； 全要素生长率； 户籍改革
    How Demographic Factor Plays Influence on China Future Economic Development
    Abstract: China has maintained the economic growth rate of 10% formerly，but potential economic growth rate immediately decreases with the disappearance of demographic dividend in 2010．If we don't accept the fact that the economic growth slowed down，as well as the strong internationally demand exists，it could keep the high speed of development while the real growth rate cannot match with potential growth rate． The European financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis makes internationally demand decrease which give us a chance to adjust speed． Actually，It is a unexpected chance for us to promote sound economic development，so that we should improve potential economic growth rate by the improvement of labor supply and labor productivity instead of stimulating domestic demand under the background of the disappearance of demographic dividend and high labor cost．
    Keywords: Demographic dividend; Potential economic growth rate; Economic growth rate;Whole elements growth rate; Reform of household registration
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    文章出处：科学发展，2013年第6期