经济再平衡、贸易与就业

    摘要：本文利用两轮经济普查数据，分析了就业与出口的关系。经验分析结果表明，出口增加有利于增加就业，但出口导向部门与内需为主的部门相比，在就业创造中的相对地位开始下降。随着劳动力市场转型，劳动密集型企业面临越来越严峻的挑战，制造业部门资本密集的趋势则日益明显。基于企业数据的分析则表明，外向型企业的就业质量也有待提升。
    Rebalancing, Trade and Employment     Abstract: Taking advantage of both aggregated data from the two rounds of Economic Census conducted in 2004 and 2008 respectively, the empirical study shows that the exporting does help China to increase job opportunities, although the relative importance of export-oriented sectors in generating employment has been decreasing from 2004 to 2008. Meanwhile, the role of domestic demand has been more active in creating jobs. With the labor market transitions in recent years, labor- intensive sectors in China have been challenged with growing labor costs. The comparisons between the two rounds of census data indicate that the manufacturing sectors have become more capital intensive over time, which partly explains why the relative importance of trade-intensive sectors in job creation has declined. Using the firm survey data, this paper also analyzes the quality of jobs associated with trade, which indicates that the job quality in export oriented sectors is not ideal.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第十二章