中国的潜在产出增长率及其预测

    摘要：在增长核算方程的基础上，我们估计了1978—2009年中国潜在GDP增长率，并预测了“十二五”和“十三五”时期的潜在增长率，发现这两个时期GDP的年平均潜在增长率分别将降低到7.8%和6.3%。考虑到中国劳动年龄人口开始下降以及中国潜在就业增长率将会在“十三五”期间出现负增长，提高劳动参与率将成为提高潜在GDP增长率的一个重要途径。在现有模型基础上，我们发现平均每年提高1%的劳动参与率将使潜在GDP增长率提高0.90个百分点。
    China’s Natural Growth Rate of Output and Its Forecast
    Abstract: On the basis of growth accounting equation, we estimate the natural growth rate of output in the period from 1978 to 2009, and predict it in periods of the 12th FYP and 13th FYP. We find the natural growth rate of output will decline to 7.8 percent in 2011-2015 and to 6.3 percent in 2016-2020. Improving the labor force participation rate will become an important way to increase the natural growth rate of output because China's working-age population begins to decline. And China's potential growth rate of employment will be negative in the 13th FYP. On the basis of the model, we find that the 1% increase of the labor force participation rate will create 0.9% increase of natural growth rate of output.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第七章