未富先老与中国经济增长的可持续性

    摘要： 中国的快速人口转变形成了"未富先老"特征,因而在应对老龄化问题时,面临第一次人口红利过早消失、第二次人口红利开发困难和养老资源不足等挑战。本文旨在揭示,中国面临的挑战不仅是人口问题,更是保持经济增长可持续性的问题。只有正视经济发展的阶段性规律,才可能找到保持经济持续增长的正确途径。本文归纳相关国际经验和教训,提出提高劳动者素质以开发第二次人口红利,通过制度调整提高养老能力和未来储蓄率的可持续性,建立完善的养老保险制度等政策建议。
    关键词： 未富先老； 第二次人口红利； 储蓄率的可持续性； 劳动力供给
     
    "Ageing before Affluence"and China’s Sustainable Economic Growth
    Abstract： China’s rapid population transformation has led to the"ageing before affluence"phenomenon.Incoping with the population ageing,China faces the challenge of premature disappearance of the firstpopulation dividend,difficulty in developing the second population dividend and lack of resources forsupporting the aged.This article aims to show that that what China faces is not only the populationchallenge,but the task of how to maintain sustainable economic growth.Only by rationally recognizingits development phase can China find a correct pathway to sustainable economic growth.This article,on the basis of summing up international experiences and lessons,suggests that China improve thequality of its labor force to develop the second population dividend,improve systematic arrangements tobetter support the aged and maintain the current savings rate,and establish a comprehensive pensionsystem.
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    文章出处：国际经济评论，2012年第1期