实现减排与增长的双赢:区域间“碳预算”分析框架

     摘要：节能减排已经成为世界经济发展的主旋律。然而,对处于工业化进程中的发展中国家来说,如何协调产业结构、经济增长与全球气候变化之间的关系还缺乏实践经验。虽然中国已经向世界做出了强度减排承诺,但在具体的技术层面上,尚缺乏切实可行的减排路径。因此,如何设定省级区域间的减排配额以实现节能减排与经济增长的双赢,已经成为未来中国节能减排实践中亟待解决的关键性问题。笔者将碳预算方案引入区域间的分析框架,计算各省(文中各省为各省、自治区、直辖市的简称,尚未统计西藏、台湾的数据)1997年～2007年的CO2排放量,并在考虑到历史排放总量的基础上,计算各省在假设情形中的碳排放配额,进而将中国的总体减排额度按照既定的标准分配到中国不同的省区内,通过碳交易市场的价格机制使中国的节能减排变得更加明确和具有可操作性。
    关键词:节能减排; 经济增长; “碳预算”方案; 省级区域
    Making Mitigation and Economic Growth Compatible : An Inter-regional Carbon Budget Analytical Framework
    Abstract : The mitigation has become the focus of world economic development1 However ,in the process of indust rialization , developing count ries are still lack of practical experience on how to coordinate the relationship among industrial structure , economic growth and global climate change. China has made commitments to the world on“intensity mitigation”,but we have not found an effective way to mitigate at current technical level. Therefore , the key issues need to be resolved for China is how to allocate emission quotas among provincial regions to achieve balance between mitigation and economic growt h1We int roduce the Carbon Budget method into interregional analytical framework and calculate all provinces' CO2 emissions from the year 1997 to 2007. The paper takes into account the historical aggregate emissions and calculates provincesp carbon emission quotas in different scenario , and then allocates Chinaps overall emission quotas into different provincial regions in terms of certain criterion , thus Chinaps mitigation will become more clear and operational through price mechanism in carbon market.
    Keywords : mitigation ; economic growth ; carbon budget scheme ; provincial regions
    文章出处：《中国社会科学院研究生院学报》，2010年第4期