人口转变、劳动力市场转折与经济发展

    内容提要：在合宜的经济制度下，人口因素也可能成为促进经济发展的推动力量。由于迅速的经济发展和人口政策的共同作用，中国在改革开放以后迅速进入了人口红利期，但由于生育率水平下降迅速，相对于其他很多国家，中国的人口红利期短，并行将进入人口负债期。低生育率水平对劳动力市场的影响则已经显现，集中体现为人口结构变化成为推动中国劳动力市场进入“ 刘易斯转折点”的重要因素。因应人口转变和劳动力市场转折，人口政策、劳动力市场政策以及人力资本积累政策都应当进行相应的调整。
    关键字：人口转变、刘易斯转折点、人口政策
    Demographic Changes, Labor Market Transition and Economic Development in China
    Abstract: Population could be a positive factor driving economic development within a favorable economic system. Thanks to its fast economic growth and population policy, China has enjoyed demographic dividend since the start of the country’s reform and opening-up drive. Compared to many other countries, however, China has had relatively short period of demographic dividend and is going to face the demographic debt soon. In addition, the impact of low fertility on labor market has already become obvious, as evidenced by demographic transition being one of the driving forces for China to encounter the Lewis turning point. Responding to the demographic and labor market transition, China should adjust its population policies, labor market policies, and policies on human capital accumulation.
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    文章出处：国际经济评论，2010年第6期