中国经济刺激方案的就业效应

    摘要：利用投入产出表，本文模拟了在全球金融危机冲击下，出口下滑对中国经济和就业带来的影响。与趋势值相比，出口下降确实对经济增长和就业产生了巨大冲击。在外需不足的情况下，启动内需是保增长和促就业的唯一选择，这就要求经济刺激方案充分考虑就业因素。模拟分析表明，就业优先方案可以在没有显著地降低增长效应的情况下，实现最大化促进就业的政策目标。政府投资可通过向就业、教育、卫生、住房和社会保障领域倾斜，推动中国经济持续稳定增长。
    关键词：全球金融危机、就业冲击、投入产出方法、经济刺激方案
    Employment Effectiveness of China’ Economic Stimulus Package
    Abstract: This paper simulates the impacts of the global financial crisis on China’s economy and employment by using an input-output method. Compared with the trend of export growth, the decline of export has indeed caused tremendous shocks on China’s economy and employment. Under the shrinking of external demand, boosting domestic demand is the only choice to maintain growth and promote employment, but the policy priority of employment should be fully taken into account in the stimulus package. Our simulated results illustrate that the investment scenario of employment priority can achieve the objective of employment promotion without significantly reducing output. Government funds should be more invested in the fields of employment, education, health, housing and social security so as to promote a sustained and stable economic growth in China.
    Keywords: Global Financial Crisis, Employment Shock, Input-Output Method, and Economic Stimulus Package
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    文章出处：工作论文，第77期