独生子女死亡总量及其变化趋势研究

    摘要：文章以1990、2000和2010年人口普查数据为基础，对全国育龄妇女二孩生育行为、生育水平和生育进度进行分析，通过2005年全国人口1%抽样调查数据和计算机仿真模型估计2010年全国独生子女总量在1.45亿左右，累计死亡独生子女超过100万。在现行生育政策下，预计2050年全国独生子女总量在3亿左右，累计死亡独生子女将超过1.184万，每年新增死亡独生子女的总量将由目前的9.5万上升到2050年的56万左右。由于“失独”家庭规模不断扩大，政府和全社会应重视和解决这一群体面临实际问题。
    关键词：生育政策；递进生育率；独生子女；“失独”家庭
     
    “Only-child-death” Family and Its Developing Trends under the Current Family Planning Policy 
    Abstract:  Based on the Chinese census data of 1990, 2000 and 2010, this paper has analyzed the fertility of the second birth, TFR and progression fertility, used the 1% sample of 2005 and 2010 census data to set up the population simulation model. Using the simulation model, this paper has estimated the total population of only-child is 145 million in 2010 and only-child-death population is 1.08 million since the family planning policy conducted in China. If the current family planning policy keeps going in the future, the total only-child population will reach 300 million and the only-child-death population will increase to 11.84 million in 2050. And the new only-child-death family will increase from 95 thousand in 2010 to 560 thousand for each year in 2050. For the population size of only-child-death family increasing, government and society should pay more attention on them.
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    文章出处：中国人口科学，2013年第1期