从生育水平和生育意愿的代际效应看未来生育率变化

    摘要：本文应用宏观和微观数据，分别分析了生育水平和生育意愿的代际联系。对跨时期的中国省级生育水平分析发现，省级层面的两组生育率高度相关；来自江苏六县调查的个体层面数据则显示，妇女的理想子女数和意愿生育子女数与父辈的生育水平显著相关。这种代际相关皆为单调下降趋势。与其他亚洲低生育率国家/地区相比，中国生育水平尚未达到谷底，还有进一步下降的空间和可能。
    Intergenerational Effects on Fertility and Intended Family Size: the Implication to Future Fertility Change in China
    Abstract: The paper intends to exam intergenerational relationship of fertility level and fertility intention. The provincial total fertility is highly correlated over time，while the analysis of micro data from a six-county survey in Jiangsu Province shows that women’s ideal and intended family size is highly correlated with fertility of parents. In both macro and micro level, there are decline trends. It seems that fertility in China has not reached the bottom, with reference to the trajectories of fertility change in other low fertility Asian countries. 
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第三章