转折点之后的就业挑战

    摘要：2012年，中国首现劳动年龄人口的减少，标志着人口红利的消失。由于潜在增长率降低，这一年低于8%的经济增长率没有造成就业冲击，意味着劳动力市场从二元模式逐渐转向新古典模式。相应地，就业矛盾越来越从总量问题转变为结构性和摩擦性问题。本文以农民工、城镇就业困难人员和大学毕业生为对象，分析每个群体面临的就业困难性质，结合国际经验揭示导致劳动者脆弱性的激励根源，提出政府加大人力资本投入、创造人力资源涌入的制度环境等政策建议。
    关键词：劳动力市场；人口红利；就业冲击
    Employment Challenges Facing China after the Disappearance of Its Demographic Dividend
    Abstract:The decline in absolute number of working age population in 2012 indicates the beginning of the disappearing of the demographic dividend in China.As a consequence of the resulting slowdown of potential growth rate, a growth rate below 8% did not cause employment shock in this year.Corresponding to the transition of development pattern from dual economy to neoclassical growth,the Chinese laborers are confronting with more structural and frictional employment difficulties.This chapter analyses the vulnerability of migrant workers,urban locals,and college graduates in labor market and proposes policy suggestions.The author suggests that the government responsibility at this stage is to invest more public resources in education and to creat better institutional environment for labor mobility that is essential for getting incentives right.
    Key Words:Labor Market;Demographic Dividend;Employment Shock
    文章出处：中国经济前景分析——2013年春节报告，社会科学文献出版社，2013年4月