中国制造业向何处去？

    摘要：本文从考察潜在的制造业转移目的地入手，看制造业有无可能，或者在什么情况下会流出中国。人口红利的内涵是人力资本，因此，与人口红利相伴而来的劳动力成本优势，不仅在于劳动力数量的无限供给，更在于劳动者承载的受教育水平和技能的持续改善。由这两个标准进行判断，目前集中在中国沿海地区的制造业，不会回流到发达国家，也不会大规模转移到其他发展中国家，而主要将逐渐转移到中西部地区。为此，政府需要创造有利于人力资本积累和提高劳动生产率的政策环境，保持单位劳动力成本优势，提高全要素生产率。
    Where do China’s Manufacturing Industries Go?      Abstract: This paper discusses the possibility of manufacturing industries moving out of China, from the aspect of potential destinations. The nature of demographic dividend is human capital, so the consequent advantage of labour cost relies not only on infinite labour supply, but also on the education level and sustainable development of labour force. By these two standards, the manufacturing industries clustered in southeast coast of China will not move to either the developed countries, or other developing countries, but they will gradually move to central and west China. Thus, government needs to create institutional environments favorable for human capital accumulation and labour productivity increase. This will maintain the competitive advantage of labour cost and enhance total factor productivity.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第九章