经济发展方式转变与节能减排内在动力

    摘要: 经济发展阶段变化所引起的增长方式转变的内在需要,以及人均收入水平提高所引起的对环境质量的更高要求,是节能减排政策能否实现与地方政府的发展动机及企业行为激励相容,从而真正得以贯彻的关键。本文通过拟合环境库兹涅茨曲线、预测排放水平从提高到下降的转折点,考察了中国经济内在的节能减排要求。我们的研究结果显示,对于温室气体的减排来说,被动等待库兹涅茨转折点的到来,已无法应对日益增加的环境压力。在这种情况下,需要依靠中央政府的决心、地方政府和企业转变增长方式的动机,加大激励力度,以实现可持续经济增长。
    关键词: 减排； 环境库兹涅茨曲线； 经济发展方式
    Abstract: The effectiveness of emission reduction policy lies on the endogenous demands for change in growth pattern and requirement for better environment.Only when economic development moves to the stage at which economic growth becomes productivity-driven,can the policy package aimed to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emission be incentive-compatible with the development motivation of local governments and behavior of enterprises.By estimating the Environment Kuznets Curve,which predicts the turning point of emission from increase to decline,this paper examines the induced need for the Chinese economy to implement emission reduction strategy.The results show that it is not enough to wait for the turning point to come,unless the policy implementation can be further strengthened in order to make incentive compatible among the central and local governments,enterprises,and people.
    Keywords: Emission Reduction； Environmental Kuznets Curve； Economic Growth Pattern
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    文章出处：经济研究，2008年06期