中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战

    摘要：本文用中国经济发展经验扩展和修正了刘易斯模型，并以之作为分析框架，描述了改革开放期间中国特色的二元经济发展路径和推动经济增长的主要因素，揭示了改革开放的制度变革效应，如何通过人口红利的利用、比较优势的发挥、全要素生产率的改进和参与经济全球化，促进了中国经济的高速增长。本文还通过观察劳动力供给和需求的最新变化，对中国经济发展阶段的重要转折点做出预测，分析了在这一转折点到来之际，制度创新和政策调整将面临哪些挑战，以保持经济增长的可持续性。
    Abstract：Under an analytical framework of the Lewis model revised in accordance with the Chinese experience, this paper narrates a stylized fact of the dualistic economic development with Chinese characteristics. The paper reveals several major growth effects accomplished in the course of the economic reform and opening-up – gain from the demographic dividend, realization of comparative advantage, improvement of total factor productivity, and participation of economic globalization. By predicting the long-term relationship between demand for and supply of labor force, the paper dopes an approaching turning point in China’s economic development and names a host of challenges facing the sustained growth in China.
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    文章出处：中国社会科学，2007年第3期