就业弹性、自然失业和宏观经济政策——为什么经济增长没有带来显性就业?

    摘要： 尽管通常的计算低估了中国的就业弹性 ,但调整后的弹性数值仍属偏低。为什么经济的增长没有带来相应的就业增长呢 ?首先 ,反周期的宏观经济政策对解决自然失业是无能为力的 ;其次 ,在反周期的宏观经济政策所能调节的周期性失业方面 ,由于宏观经济政策所引导的投资方向往往是就业密集度较低的行业 ,进而导致反周期措施拉动就业的能力大为降低。因此 ,完善劳动力市场机制、加强职业培训体系建设、推动高就业产业发展 ,应成为经济政策的重点。
    关键词： 就业弹性； 自然失业率； 宏观经济政策
    Employment Elasticity, NAIRU and Macroeconomic Policies
    Abstract: This paper explains why economic growth has not brought about revealed employment growth. First, ant-i cycle macroeconomic policies are incapable of solving natural unemployment, which dominates the overall unemployment in China.Second, the investments driven by expansive macroeconomic policies since 1998 have overwhelmingly concentrated in low employment sectors. Therefore, the policy efforts should be made to improve labor market, strengthen occupational training system, and promote high employment sectors.
    Key Words: Employment Elasticity ; NAIRU; Macroeconomic Policies
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    文章出处：经济研究，2004年第9期