欧债危机下的养老金制度改革——从福利国家到高债国家的教训

    摘要: 文章从人口老龄化的角度,分析了"老龄化成本"的含义和构成及其导致希腊陷入债务危机的诱因,认为欧洲尤其是希腊的养老金体系存在的替代率过高、待遇率严重失衡、养老金财富总值超出支付能力等问题提升了老龄化的财务成本;作者在分析了欧债危机下世界改革养老金的趋势后,认为中国养老金制度中存在参数不合理、缺乏个人激励机制、市场激励因素弱化、再分配因素失衡等潜在的财务风险,建议重视第二支柱的建设以部分转移第一支柱的财务风险,逐渐提高退休年龄以重建科学的制度参数,重塑账户的激励功能以增强制度收入能力,建立制度"防火墙"以规避潜在财务风险。
    关键词: 老龄化成本； 养老保险改革； 养老金隐性债务； 债务危机； 福利国家；
    European Debt Crisis Calling for Pension Reform:From Welfare State to Debt State
    Abstract: Based on the comparison of the series of social and economic indicators analysis,the author argues that higher public expenditure and over generosity of pension are potential causes for Greece’s debt crisis.These indicators have run much higher than those in most of the developed countries in Europe and North America,and they are also more than the affordability level of Greek economic development.The European debt in PIIGS crisis is pushing forward the pension reform in European Welfare States.In order to meet the challenges of longevity risks and rising aging cost,China should draw lessons from the crisis for deepening reform of the pension system.The author suggests that China should give priority to develop the second pillar in order to shift partially financial risks over from the first pillar,gradually raise retirement age with reconstructing reasonable parameters functions,innovate the stimulus mechanism of the individual accounts for increasing contribution revenues,and build up a firewall between the contribution plan and non-contribution plan to avoid financial risks.
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2011年第5期