中国的绿色政策与就业：存在双重红利吗？

    摘要： 减排与就业的“双重红利假说”认为：在征收碳税的同时减少所得税，能够实现减少碳排放与增加就业的双重红利。现实中，很多欧洲国家通过改变税收扭曲，成功地获得了“双重红利效应”。同样,中国也面临着开征碳税以及减少个人所得税的现实问题。那么，通过税收结构调整，中国能否创造出类似于欧洲国家的就业“双重红利”是一个非常值得探讨的问题。基于这些考虑，我们在VAR模型的基础上，模拟了中国的就业双重红利问题。最终发现：征收10元/吨的碳税对两部门的产出和就业影响并不显著；如果采取征收碳税并减少所得税的“中性”绿色税收政策将会促进中国低碳部门的产出增长；但至少到目前为止，与发达国家的经验事实不同，中国还难以在短期内获得就业的“双重红利”。然而，在节能减排和经济结构调整的双重压力下，改革税收体系以促进中国低碳经济的发展也不失为一种次优的选择。
    关键词： 碳税  绿色就业  双重红利
    Green Policies and Jobs in China: A double dividend?
    Abstract: Based on the double dividend hypothesis, imposing carbon tax and financing cuts in social contribution will permit a double dividend to be obtained: the mitigation of CO2 emissions and stimulation of employment creation. In the real world, many European countries successfully obtained a double dividend effect by changing tax distortions. Because China has also facing the same dilemma, so it’s an important issue for analysis Chinese double dividend for mitigation and employment. We adopted a VAR model to carry out a simulation method and found that it hasn’t a significant effect on the output and employment in the two sector’s world when we add a 10 Yuan/ton carbon tax. A revenue-neutral green tax reform which increases the personal tax credit will never increase employment in the short term in China. However, the reform of the tax system to promote the development of China's low-carbon economy may well be a second-best option.
    Key Words: Carbon Tax; Green Jobs; Double Dividend Hypothesis
    文章出处：《经济研究》，2011年第7期