地方财政支出跨境溢出效应的估计及其对区域一体化的影响基于长江三角洲城市群的实证研究

    The Estimate of Cross-border Spillover Effect of Local Fiscal Expenditure and Its Impact on Regional Integration： Empirical Research on the Yangtze River Delta City Group
    基金：基金项目：国家社科基金重大项目（13＆ZD016）;国家社科基金重点项目（12AZD095）;教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划（NCET-13-0207）;上海市教育委员会科研创新重点项目（12ZS044）
    摘要：地理位置的相邻性、经济规模的相似性以及城市化水平的相似性等空间因素对一个区域内各地方的财政支出及其结构有着不容忽视的影响，直接决定着区域一体化的进程和路径。文章在理论上刻画了相邻地区之间财政支出及其结构的空间外溢效应形成机制，并以跨行政区划区域一体化的典型案例——长江三角洲城市群16个核心城市为样本，计算了地理空间和经济空间的权重矩阵，估计了各地方财政总支出的跨境溢出效应，结果发现。相邻地区的财政支出每增加1％，本地区的财政支出增加0．64％-0．72％。文章还进一步估计了各地方生产性支出的空间外溢效应及其对区域一体化的影响，以及教科文卫、社会福利等民生项目支出的空间外溢效应，为地方政府如何合作治理以推进跨行政区划的区域一体化进程提供更为细致的路径选择和突破口，扫除行政区划和地方利益所导致的一体化发展障碍。
    Spatial factors such as geographical proximity and the similarities of economic scale and urbanization have important effects on local fiscal expenditure and its structure and directly determine the process and path of regional integration. This paper theoretically por- trays the formation mechanism of spatial spillover effects of fiscal expenditure and its struc- ture between adjacent areas. Then it calculates the weight matrix of geographical and eco- nomic spaces and estimates the cross-border spillover effects of local fiscal expenditure based on a sample of the Yangtze River Delta city group as a typical case of regional integration across administrative divisions. It arrives at the conclusion that the increase in fiscal expenditure of adjacent areas by 1~ leads to the rise in local fiscal ex- penditure by 0.64%--0.72%. It further estimates the spatial spillover effects of local produc- tion expenditure and its impact on regional integration, and the spatial spillover effects of livelihood expenditure such as science, education, culture, hygiene and social welfare, in or- der to provide a more detailed path choice and a breakthrough for the advancement of region- al integration across administrative divisions through cooperative governance of local govern- ments and solve barriers to integration development resulting from administrative divisions and local benefits.
    关 键 词：跨境溢出效应 地方财政支出 区域一体化
    cross-border spillover effect local fiscal expenditure regional integration
    分 类 号：F810.45F061.5
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