宏观审慎政策及货币政策效果探讨基于DSGE框架的分析

    On Effects of Macro-prudential Policy and Monetary Policy： Analysis Based on a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Framework
    摘要：文章在动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）框架下，通过将宏观审慎政策工具贷款价值比动态化，以及引入对家庭和企业进行区别调控的思想，探讨了4种政策组合下主要宏观经济变量的动态变化。结果表明：（1）在传统冲击下，宏观审慎政策不会影响货币政策的目标；在非传统冲击下，遵循泰勒规则的货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互配合，对于通胀目标还起到一定的保护作用。（2）宏观审慎政策会改变各部门的资产配置，从而部分改变经济体的格局，但不会对经济体的总体运行状态产生结构性影响，因而具有中立性特征。
    Under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework, this paper dis- cusses the dynamic changes in main macroeconomic variables under four policy combinations by the construction of dynamic loan-to-value ratio as a macro-prudential policy instrument and the introduction of the idea about differentiated control of families and firms. It comes to the following conclusions, firstly, macro-prudential policy has no effects on the target of monetary policy under traditional shocks, and the combination of monetary policy obeying the Taylor rule and macro-prudential policy plays a protective role in inflation target under untraditional shocks; secondly, macro-prudential policy can change capital allocation in sec- tors, thereby partially changing a pattern of the economy, but has no structural effects on the whole operation condition of the economy, so it is featured by neutrality.
    关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 货币政策 有效性
    macro-prudential policy monetary policy effectiveness
    分 类 号：F832
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