从分省生育率看我国生育转变的地区差异

    摘要：利用省级生育与社会经济统计资料，分析了影响我国生育转变进程的主要因素。研究表明，生育转变过程存在重要的扩散特征，尤其在生育转变后期。20世纪90年代以来，社会经济与政策因素对各地区生育转变的解释力出现不同程度的下降；较早开始生育转变的地区，生育率在更替水平与政策生育率以下进一步下降。
     
    Provincial Disparities in Fertility Transition and Related Implications
    Abstract:  China has witnessed rapid fertility transition since the 1970s and the transition process has been largely attributed to the rapid socioeconomic development and strict family planning policy. Recent studies suggest that family planning policy has launched the transition process and driven it predominantly during the years before 1990, while socioeconomic factors play a more significant role in the process since the 1990s. By employing the provincial level data, this study finds that the effects of both fertility policy and socioeconomic factors may have declined in the late transition stage. And it finds evidence that the fertility transition is self-sustaining and diffusive, once it is initiated by both socioeconomic factors and policy.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第二章