生育意愿研究及其现实意义——兼以江苏调查为例

    摘要：本文简要回顾了生育意愿研究在国内外的发展及其在不同人口发展阶段的实用意义,介绍了从生育意愿到生育行为的决策过程,并以江苏群众生育意愿和生育行为调查结果为例,讨论了在低生育率地区符合二孩政策夫妇的生育意愿、生育计划及其向生育行为的转化。作者认为,理想子女数、生育意愿和生育计划是逐步接近现实的三个层次,每个层次在数量上逐级递减,具有明确的数量和时间的生育计划更有可能转化为生育行为。而这三个指标随时间变动的稳定性也是逐级递减的,理想子女数最为稳定,生育计划短期改变的可能性更大。与理想子女数相比,生育意愿和生育计划更具有政策相关性和实用价值。
    关键词：理想子女数量; 生育意愿; 生育计划; 生育行为
    Fertility Desire and Its Significance
    Abstract:Briefly reviewing studies of fertility desire at home and abroad,and its practical significance in different population Development phase,the Paper introduced decision-making process from fertility desire to reproductive behavior,discussed the change of fertility desire,family planning and reproductive behavior of the couple fitted to the two-child policy in the low fertility regions.The author believes that the ideal number of children,fertility desire and family planning will gradually close to the reality of the three levels.Compared with the ideal number of children ,fertility desire and family planning will be more policy relevance and of more practical value.
    Keywords:The ideal number of children; fertility desire; family planning; fertility behavior
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    文章出处：学海，2011年第2期