中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析

    摘要:  文章通过对2000和2010年两次人口普查数据的比较分析发现,20世纪90年代以来中国省际人口迁移的区域模式具有相当的稳定性,但也出现了一些明显的局部性变化。如人口迁出和迁入的分布都呈一定集中趋势,且迁入集中趋势尤为明显;人口迁出呈"多极化",迁入则更加集中化;一些重要的人口迁出地和迁入地的迁出和迁入强度表现出强者恒强、强者更强的特征。人口迁入重心北移,长三角都市圈取代珠三角都市圈成为21世纪以来省际人口迁入的主要地区。省际人口迁移区域模式及其变化,主要是迁入地城镇收入水平等经济因素的吸引作用明显增强所致,并与空间距离等恒定因素的影响相对弱化有关。
    关键词:  省际人口迁移； 区域模式； 影响因素； 回归分析
    China’s Inter-Provincial Migration Patterns and Influential Factors: Evidence from Year 2000 and 2010 Population Census of China
    Abstract:    According to comparative analysis on the data of China's 2000 Census and 2010 Census, although there have been stable regional patterns of China's inter- provincial migration since 1990s, certain changes are emerging. This analysis concludes the following major changes. There have been escalating concentration trends for the distribution of immigrant and emigrant, and the concentration trend of immigrant distribution is more significant. Comparatively, the emigrant concentration trend reveals certain "multi- polarization"feature while the immigrant distribution is more concentrated. The emigration strength of the main origin provinces and the immigration strength of the main destination provinces have been either keeping strong or becoming stronger. The center of gravity for immigrant distribution has moved from the south to the north, and Yangtze delta metropolitan area has replaced Pearl River delta metropolitan area, becoming the new main immigration destination in the 21th century. The above changes have mainly resulted from the influence of urban relative income growth in the destinations, and are relavant to the relative reduction of spatial distance.
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2012年第5期