地区差异、城镇化推进与户籍改革成本

    摘要：户籍改革成本究竟有多大？本文基于公共服务和福利均等化的户籍改革思路，明确与户籍直接挂钩、最直接关联的基本权利和福利项目，从全国地级以上城市层面考察了户籍改革成本的地区差异，整体估算了户籍改革成本及其随城市化推进的动态变化。研究表明：户籍价值及改革成本的地区差异是地方推动户籍改革的巨大阻力，未来20年、城市化水平达到70%的情况下，户籍改革总成本累计不会超过30万亿元，相当于全国财政累计用于与民生直接相关支出的16%左右。以基本公共服务和福利均等化为导向的户籍改革和城市化推进在财政上具有可行性，改革的关键在于良好的成本分摊机制，中央政府应该承担更大责任，全国整体推进、打破行政区域分割，兼顾地区差异但不能简单地以城市规模或东中西区域为划分标准。
    关键词：基本福利均等化；户籍改革；成本；城市化
     
    Regional Differences, Proceeding Urbanization and the Cost for Reform of Household Register
    Abstract: How much cost is the reform of household registration? According to equalization of basic public service and farewell which are items of most direct correlating to basic farewells and powers, this article not only examines urban difference of the reform cost of household registration to all-level cities in China but also estimates dynamic changes of the reform of household registration with proceeding urbanization in the whole. The research shows that urban difference of the reform cost and value of household registration is the tremendous resistance of leaded reform of household registration by local government and adding up total costs of household registration are no more than 30 trillion yuans until to 2030, which equates to around 16 % on the expenditure of people's livelihood from adding up national revenue. Therefore, this reform pattern has practicability in the finance. The key of reform of household registration is a well system of cost allocation. Thus, the centre government should undertake much responsibility as well as reform of household registration should proceed wholly in China and break segmentation of administrative division among all-level cities.
    Key words: equalization of basic social farewell, reform of household registration, cost, urbanization
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    文章出处：改革，2013年第3期