人口红利消失后中国经济如何增长？

    摘要：中国在过去30多年中奇迹般的经济增长迄今为止仍得益于人口红利，即由于人口抚养比较低，而为经济发展创造出了有利的人口条件，使得整个国家的经济呈现出高储蓄、高投资和高增长的局面。本文测算了人口转变对1982-2010年间中国经济增长的贡献，解析了人口抚养比变化对资本边际报酬递减规律的克服作用，并对人口红利即将消失这一判断提供了经验证据。在劳动年龄人口在2013年达到最大后，中国将失去人口红利，经济增长将越来越依赖于全要素生产率贡献份额的提高。为此，本文就依靠转变发展方式获得新的经济增长源泉提出政策建议。
     
    How does China’s Economic Grow after Disappearance of Demographic Dividend?
    Abstract: China’s miraculous economic growth in over 30-year reform period has so far been rooted in the demographic dividend – namely, the extra growth sources resulted from its fast demographic transition. However, as working age population reaches its peak in about 2013, China is running out such dividend and urgently seeking new sources in order to maintain sustainable growth. This paper provides empirical evidence of demographic transition’s contribution to economic growth and of the trend of diminishing demographic dividend, explores the mechanism of demographic transition spurring economic growth, and draws implications for policy options.
    文章出处：中国人口与劳动问题报告No.13，第六章