未来的人口红利——中国经济增长源泉的开拓

    摘要： 文章回顾中国经济增长中的人口红利,即在过去30年中人口因素对中国经济增长的贡献,在此基础上,探讨在劳动年龄人口增速放缓、剩余劳动力渐趋枯竭、人口老龄化的条件下,中国如何保持经济增长的可持续性。文章目的主要在于揭示和论证在第一次人口红利式微乃至消失后,仍然可以产生第二次人口红利,避免"人口负债",即通过教育深化提高劳动生产率,保持和延伸中国产业的竞争优势,通过养老保障制度安排创造新的储蓄源泉,以及通过劳动力市场制度安排,扩大人口老龄化时期的劳动力资源和人力资本存量。
    关键词： 第一次(第二次)人口红利； 教育深化； 养老保障； 人力资源
     
    China’s Future Demographic Dividend:Digging New Source of Economic Growth
    Abstract： This paper starts with the retrospect of demographic dividend as a significant contributor to China’s economic growth during the past 30 years. It intends to discuss how China will retain the sustainability of fast growth at the new development stage characterized by slow-down of increase of working age population,gradual disappearance of surplus rural labor force,and acceleration of population aging. The proposition of the paper is that while the first demographic dividend diminishes as a result of demographic transition,the second type of demographic dividend can be created and obtained and the so-called demographic debt can be avoided if the following conditions can be created: (1)deepening education to enhance labor productivity,(2)extending competitive advantage of Chinese industries to sustain economic growth, (3)establishing fully funded pension scheme to dig new source of savings,and(4)activating labor market institutions to expand stock of labor resource and human capital.
    全文阅读
    文章出处：中国人口科学，2009年第1期