王新梅:退回到现收现付制：发展中国家养老金私有化改革的溃败

    摘要:在过去的20多年中，有近40个发展中国家实施了公共养老金的私有化改革，也称为养老金制度的系统改革。然而现在约一半的国家撤退了。本文的目的是通过分析被忽视的系统改革的主要特征，解释为什么系统改革会失败。首先，本文将揭示发达国家和发展中国家公共养老金的改革路径存在着本质的不同，即：发达国家的参数改革对峙发展中国家的系统改革。第二，由于发展中国家中相当大比重的老年人处于没有任何公共政策能够保障他们最低生活水平的状态，所以系统改革的主要特征与迄今为止基于发达国家背景的分析产生了显著不同。此时，转轨成本带来的是三重负担，而不是二重负担；迫于解决转轨成本的压力，政府资源向国民养老金的配置受到制约。这两个因素导致了绝大多数年轻人没有参保积极性、无力承担资本市场的价格波动，以及广泛存在且难以提高的低参保率问题。最后讨论养老基金难以年金化的问题。我们的结论是系统改革难以成为发展中国家公共养老金制度解决老龄化造成的财政压力的有效途径。
    关键词:现收现付制，积累制，养老金的系统改革，国民养老金，转轨成本，养老金的年金化
    Some Overlooked Key Characteristics of Systemic Pension Reform
    Xinmei Wang, John B. Williamson and Mehmet Cansoy
    Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, China;
    Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA, United States
    Abstract:About 40 developing countries have involved in systemic reform that substitutes privately managed funded systems for existing pay-as-you-go public pensions mainly since the mid-1990s. However, about half of them have been either partially or fully terminated. This paper investigates several important characteristics that have been previously largely overlooked. Firstly, the fundamental differences with respect to the dominant approaches of public pension reform between developing and developed countries are described. The major difference has been systemic reform in developing countries vs. parametric reform in developed countries. Secondly, based on the evidence that a substantial proportion of the elderly in developing countries are not protected by any public pension providing what can be considered an adequate minimum standard of living, the inherent key features of systemic reform have turned out to be: triple burden costs during transition period, and the tradeoff of the allocation of government resources between social pensions and mandatory funded pensions. These inherent characteristics have led to the problems of incentive incompatibility, unaffordability of volatilities of capital markets, and low-coverage. We also discuss the difficulties of annuitization in connection with funded defined contribution schemes.
    Keywords:systemic pension reform, pay-as-you-go, funded pensions, social pensions, annuitization, transition costs
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    文章出处：工作论文