人口转变与东亚奇迹：经验与启示

    摘要：本文总结了人口转变对东亚奇迹的贡献作用。人口转变带来的具有生产性的人口年龄结构，为东亚经济带来了一次收获人口红利的“机会窗口”。日本和“四小龙”抓住机遇，通过发展劳动密集型产业和开发人力资源来发挥自己的比较优势，既收获了人口红利，又推动了经济起飞。不过，随着人口老化，日本的现收现付制度对对经济增长带来了冲击。东亚经济的发展经验表明，一个国家和地区的发展战略选择和养老制度安排，对收获人口红利和化解人口负债具有重要影响。
    关键词：人口红利，人口负债，经济增长，东亚奇迹
    Abstract: This paper summarizes the contribution of demographic change to East Asian economic miracle.  The productive population age structure resulting from the demographic transition provides an “opportunity window” for East Asian economy to harvest demographic dividend.  Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Korea firmly grasped this opportunity and realized their economic takeoff through labor-intensive industry development and human resources utilization.  However, population aging in the wake of their economic takeoff produced shocks on their economic growth.  The developmental experiences in those economies demonstrate that the choice of development strategy and the arrangement of old age support system play a vital role in the gain of demographic dividend and the relief of demographic debt.
    Key Words: Demographic Dividend, Demographic Debt, Economic Growth and East Asian Miracle
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    文章出处：工作论文，第54期