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人口结构变化对经济结构的影响——基于投入产出模型的分析
http://www.newdu.com 2018/3/29 中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济学网 倪红福；… 参加讨论
内容提要：本文利用1995年、2002年和2007年的中国家庭收入调查和家庭人口预测数据，实证分析了家庭户主年龄与家庭消费结构的变化关系。研究发现，家庭户主年龄和消费结构存在显著的动态变化关系，如医疗保障支出随着家庭户主年龄的增加而显著增大。本文还利用投入产出模型，从比较静态的角度分析了人口年龄结构变化通过消费需求结构渠道对产业结构和就业结构的影响。研究表明：人口年龄结构变化对服务业及其就业比重产生了显著的影响，且不同服务业受影响的程度不同，如随着人口结构的老化，医疗和健康护理行业将大幅扩大，随之该行业的专业技术人员需求也将大幅增加。此外，从不同情景的分析结果来看，放松计划生育政策可以在一定程度上缓解人口老龄化对产业结构和就业结构的影响。
关键词：人口结构、消费结构、投入产出模型
Impacts of Demographic Structure Change on Economic Structure in China: An Analysis Based on InputOutput Model
Ni Hongfu1, Li Shantong2 & He Jianwu2
(National Academy of Economic Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences1; Development Research Centre of the State Council2)
Abstract： Using survey data from Chinese Household Income Project (1995, 2002 and 2007) and household population prediction data, we study the dynamic relationship between household head age and consumption structure. The empirical results show that there are significant differences in consumption structure among households with different ages. For example, the share of consumption on health care and medical services increases rapidly with the increase of age. Moreover, in a comparative static perspective, an inputoutput model is used to study the impact of demographic structure change on industrial and employment structure through the impact of consumption structure. The results indicate that demographic structure change has the biggest influence on service sector and its employment, but different service sectors are affected in different degrees. For example, the demand for medical and health care services will increase greatly, and as a result, the demand for technical personnel specialized on medical service, health care and elder care will also increase. Furthermore, by comparing different scenarios, it is evident that the effects of population aging on industrial and employment structure can be relieved if the current family planning policy is relaxed.
Keywords： demographic structure, consumption structure, input-output model
JEL Classification： J10, J11, J18
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倪红福，中国社会科学院财经战略研究院，电子邮箱：nihongfu@gsm.pku.edu.cn
李善同，国务院发展研究中心，电子邮箱：shantong@drc.gov.cn
何建武，国务院发展研究中心，电子邮箱：jianwu@drc.gov.cn
文章出处：劳动经济研究，2014年第2卷第3期
Tags：人口结构变化对经济结构的影响,基于投入产出模型的分析
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