转型红利与中国经济“挤压式增长“

    摘要：在30多年高速增长之后，中国经济增长可持续性成为学者们关注的焦点。本文将人口因素纳入分析框架，基于均衡和非均衡增长两种视角，对中国经济增长奇迹背后的动力源泉进行了分解。基于均衡视角研究表明，人口转变对于中国经济增长贡献度约为11.71%, 资本深化以及人力资本增加贡献度分别为56.75%和11.47%，全要素生产率对于经济增长贡献度约为20.07%，但在分析期间呈现出明显的下降趋势；基于非均衡视角分析可发现，在分析期间由于劳动力省际间流动导致人均GDP提高212元，劳动力在部门之间流动导致人均GDP提高1612元，深入研究可发现，尽管中国各地区间经济发展处于不同阶段，产业结构相互间存在较大差异，但结构效应却呈现出几乎一致的变化趋势。最后，文章对于中国经济增长模式转变提出了相应政策建议。
    关键词：转型红利   经济增长源泉  生产率  挤压式增长
    Transform Bonus and Pressure-fed Growth of China’s Economy
    Liu Ruixiang & Yu Yiwen
    Abstract: Sustainability of China’s economic growth has become the focus of scholars after 30 years of rapid growth. After integrating population factors into analytical framework, this paper decomposed the growth source behind China economic miracle based on both balanced and unbalanced perspectives. On balanced perspectives, it is found that the contribution of demographic transition to China’s economic growth is about 11.71%, and the contribution of capital deepening and human capital are 56.75% and 11.47% respectively. Most importantly, the average contribution of TFP to China’s economics during the analysis period is 20.07% and manifests a clear downward trend. On unbalanced perspectives, mobility of labor among areas and industries increase the per capita GDP about 212 RMB and 1612 RMB respectively. Further research found that although each region in China has different development pattern and different industry structure, but the composition effects show almost the same trend. In the end, some suggestions for transforming Chinese economic growth pattern are given in this paper.
    Keywords: transform bonus, economics growth source, productivity, pressure-fed growth  
    JEL Classification: O11, O47
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    文章出处：劳动经济研究，2014年第2卷第1期,p76-100