低学历劳动力面临的就业危机——以江苏省城镇为例

    内容提要：本文以江苏省城镇为例，利用Probit模型和Heckman两阶段模型，分析当技术进步为经济增长主要来源时，劳动力市场对人力资本的要求和影响工资的因素。研究发现，江苏省城镇劳动力市场中，低学历劳动力就业的概率很低，而且其相对收入持续下降；36岁小学学历已婚男性的收入不能使其自身脱离贫困，初中学历仅可使2个人脱离贫困，因此整个家庭陷入贫困的可能性很高。与农民工的教育学历均值为初中相结合，本文提出以下政策建议：加强低学历农村迁移劳动力的在职培训，提高其就业能力；降低农村学龄儿童受教育的成本，推动人力资本积累。
    关键词：低学历 就业 贫困 农村迁移劳动力
    Employment Crisis Faced by Labor with Lower Education:Evidence from Urban Jiangsu Province
    Abstract: This paper takes urban Jiangsu province as an example, analyzes requirement on human capital and influences on wage when technical advance is main source of economic growth by Probit-model and Heckman two step model. Findings are as follows: employment’s probability of labor with lower education is lower, and the relative wage continuously decreases; income of 36 year old married male labor with primary can’t make himself escape from poverty, with junior high school degree just can make 2 persons escape from poverty, which maybe let the whole family in poverty. Political suggestions are proposed with the fact average educational degree of rural migrant is less than junior high school degree: supply job training for rural migrant with lower education to improve employment’s ability; decrease educational cost for rural school-age children to promote human capital’s accumulation.
    Keywords: lower education; employment; poverty; rural migrant
    JEL Classification: J21, J23, J24
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    文章出处：劳动经济研究，2013年第1卷第1期