领头龙现象：低收入国家赶超式发展的新机遇

    内容提要：现代经济的发展往往伴随着从农业经济向工业经济的结构转型。18世纪以来，所有成功实现工业化的国家，包括新兴市场国家（如中华人民共和国、印度和印度尼西亚），都充分利用了其比较优势与后发优势。目前有这样一种看法，即中国在制造业中的主导地位阻碍了贫困国家在类似产业的发展。但是本文认为，逐渐高涨的劳动力成本推动中国从发展劳动密集型产业向发展资本密集型和技术密集型产业转型，这将使低技术含量的制造业工作机会转移至其他低收入国家。这一过程，也就是我们所谓的“领头龙现象”，会为那些低收入国家带来前所未有的机遇。这些低收入国家可以通过吸引来自巴西、中国、印度和印度尼西亚等国不断增长的直接投资来抓住这个机遇。所有的低收入国家都应积极争取从中国和其他新兴经济体溢出的工作机会，而最后的赢家会是那些实施稳妥可靠并且符合自身比较优势的经济发展战略的国家。
    关键词：结构转型 亚洲 非洲 中华人民共和国 雁行模式
    Leading Dragon Phenomenon: New Opportunities for Catch-up in Low-Income Countries
    Abstract: Modern economic development is accompanied by the structural transformation from an agrarian to an industrial economy. Since the 18th century, all countries that industrialized successfully have followed their comparative advantages and leveraged the latecomer advantage, including emerging market economies such as the People's Republic of China (PRC), India, and Indonesia. The current view is that Chinese dominance in manufacturing hinders poor countries from developing similar industries. We argue that rising labor cost is causing the PRC to graduate from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries. This will result in the relocation of low-skill manufacturing jobs to other low-wage countries. This process, which we call the “leading dragon phenomenon,” offers an unprecedented opportunity to low-income countries. Such economies can seize this opportunity by attracting the rising outward foreign direct investment flowing from Brazil, the PRC, India, and Indonesia into the manufacturing sectors. All low-income countries can compete for the jobs spillover from the PRC and other emerging economies, but the winner must implement credible economic development strategies that are consistent with its comparative advantage.
    Keywords: structural transformation, Asia, Africa, The People's Republic of China, the flying geese pattern
    JEL Classification：B10, O10, O14, O25
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    文章出处：劳动经济研究，2013年第1卷第1期