对中国城乡就业和城市化率的再估计

    内容提要：本文认为中国现行人口与就业统计对城乡间迁移人口和劳动力有较大遗漏。作者比较了人口普查数据和其他调查数据间的差异，分析了导致差异的原因，据此对中国的城乡人口与就业数据进行了修正。调整后的2012年城镇就业人数增加4700万人左右，乡村就业人数则减少3100万人以上。作者估算中国2012年的实际城市化率已超过55%。作者认为，尽管中国实际城市化程度高于统计显示的程度，农村人口继续向城镇转移仍有很大潜力。如果能够通过改革消除目前在户籍制度、社会保障和公共福利制度等方面的障碍，未来10年我国城市化率能够再提高10个百分点以上。
    关键词：城市化率 劳动力转移 刘易斯拐点
     
    A Re-estimation of China’s Urban-Rural Employment and Urbanization Ratio
    Abstract: In this article, the authors scrutinize the official statistics on China’s urban and rural employment as well as urban and rural population. After carefully analyzing data from various sources, it is found that the national census data of 2010 understate the number of rural-urban migrant workers, implying underestimation of urban employment by 47 million and urbanization ratio by 3% percentage points in 2012. Nevertheless, large rural-urban migration is expected to continue, particularly with gradual removal of various institutional barriers. With imminent reforms to the infamous household registration, social security and public services systems, the urbanization ratio could gain at least 10 percentage points in the next ten years.
    Keywords: urbanization ratio，rural-urban migration，Lewis turning point
    JEL Classification：J61，R12，R23，P25
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    文章出处：劳动经济研究，2013年第1卷第1期