部门投资异质性与中国经济增长的多重均衡对中国“中等收入陷阱”动因的一个理论解释框架

    The Heterogeneity of Sector Investment and Multiple Equilibrium of Economic Growth in China： A Theoretical Explanation Framework of the Cause of ＂Middle-income Trap＂ in China
    基金：基金项目：国家社科基金重点项目“跨越中等收入陷阱对策研究”（11AZD038）
    摘要：与以往的研究不同，文章认为中等收入陷阱问题可看作是发展中国家经济增长过程中的一个特殊多重均衡现象，④因而可将中等收入陷阱问题置于标准的经济增长理论框架内加以考察。在将部门间投资的异质性引入Ramsey—Cass—Koopmans动态一般均衡模型后，文章首先从理论上给出了“个私投资”比例变化影响经济稳定均衡点，且更高的“个私投资”比例将导致经济处于更高稳定均衡点的命题。然后，文章在考虑理论模型证明与计量模型衔接，以及计量模型参数估计与统计推断有效性的基础上，利用一般VAR和SVAR的脉冲响应分析，对命题进行了实证检验。文章的一个重要意义是在已有研究结论与传统主流经济增长理论之间做了一个具有微观基础的“嫁接”，从而使得这些研究结论具有了坚实的微观基础。
    Different from previous research, this paper assumes that the problem of middle-income trap can be regarded as a special multiple-equilibrium phenomenon in the process of economic growth in developing countries, so it can introduce the problem of mid- dle-income trap into a standard growth theory framework. After the introduction of the inter -sector investment heterogeneity into Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans dynamic general equilibrium model, it first theoretically puts forward a proposition that the changes in the ratio of indi- vidual and private investment affect the economic stability equilibrium point and higher ratio of individual and private investment results in higher stability equilibrium point. Then based on the consideration of the link of theoretical and econometric models and the effectiveness of parameter estimation and statistical inference of the econometric model, it uses both VAR and SVAR impulse response analysis to empirically test the proposition. It gives great signif- icance that it makes a link between current research conclusions and traditional mainstream growth theory to provide a solid microeconomic foundation for these conclusions.
    关 键 词：投资异质性 多重均衡 中等收入陷阱
    investment heterogeneity multiple equilibrium middle-income trap
    分 类 号：F061.3F120.3
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