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[文萃]汪锋 等：从理论高度看反腐对经济的贡献
http://www.newdu.com 2018/3/20 《经济研究》2018年第1期 汪锋 姚树… 参加讨论
原文标题：反腐促进经济可持续稳定增长的理论机制
内容提要：本文不直接讨论腐败与经济增长的关系，而是讨论腐败、反腐败与经济增长之间的三角关系。这一崭新的分析方法，从实证中得出非常有现实意义的结论。我们以中国的反腐斗争作为具体的分析案例，首先构建一个反腐如何促进经济增长的理论框架，然后利用各省市自治区在2000—2014年间的面板数据，实证分析本文的理论假设以及量化腐败、反腐败与经济增长的关系。我们把中国各省地方党报在样本期间所出现的“腐败”关键词作为政府反腐的力度，把各省查获腐败官员数量分解为反腐力度和腐败程度两个要素，并把它们及其交叉项植入一个内生经济增长条件收敛模型，运用动态面板数据差分GMM估计方法，对反腐如何减少腐败程度，进而对经济增长产生长期的积极影响进行实证研究。我们发现反腐与经济增长之间的关系受到腐败程度的影响，持续性反腐可以降低总体腐败程度，从而提高国内外投资者的信心，保证国家长期发展的驱动力，从而有利于经济社会可持续稳定发展。
关键词：反腐力度 腐败程度 经济可持续增长
作者及简介：汪锋，重庆大学经济与工商管理学院；姚树洁（通讯作者），重庆大学经济与工商管理学院，华南农业大学；曲光俊，伯明翰-南方学院（美国）。
Sustainable and Steady Economic Growth under Anticorruption in China
WANG Feng， YAO Shujiea，and QU Guangjun
Summary： Empirical studies of the relationship between corruption and economic growth have different conclusions. Most studies， however， have focused their analysis on the singular relationship between economic growth and corruption， and few have paid attention to how anticorruption may affect this relationship.
In this study， we do not directly discuss the relation between corruption and economic growth. Instead， we discuss the triangular relationship between corruption， anticorruption and economic growth. This new approach not only makes a significant contribution to the literature， but also leads to some interesting and meaningful research results. We used China's anticorruption campaign as an example to construct a theoretical model describing how anticorruption might promote economic growth. We then used a panel dataset covering all Chinese regions over the 2000-2014 period to test our hypotheses and quantify the triangular relationship between corruption， anticorruption and economic growth.
We used the key word “corruption”， which appeared in Party newspapers published during 2000-2014 by the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central and Regional Committees， to reflect the effort of anticorruption. The number of Party or state officials under investigation was separated into two components： the anticorruption effort and the level of corruption. These two components and their cross terms were then embedded in an augmented production function designed for a regional economic convergence analysis.
We then used a panel dynamic analysis (GMM) approach to examine how the anticorruption effort might have affected the level of corruption and hence long term economic growth in Chinese regions. We found that the relation between anticorruption effort and economic growth was affected by the level of corruption. As a result， sustaining an anticorruption campaign reduced the level of corruption and hence raised the level of confidence for foreign and domestic investors in addition to the governing ability of the Party and the state， which were important for sustainable socioeconomic development in the long term.
This study makes two important contributions to the literature in terms of research methodology. (1) This paper studies the triangular relationship between corruption， anticorruption and economic growth from a new perspective. (2) It finds appropriate variables to represent “corruption” and “corruption and anticorruption”， enabling us to separate the effects of these two variables and their crossterms on regional economic growth within the framework of an endogenous growth model.
Our study produces three key findings. (1) The relationship between an anticorruption campaign and economic growth is affected by the level of corruption. When the level of corruption is low， the anticorruption campaign can promote economic growth. (2) When the level of corruption is high and the anticorruption campaign is ineffective at containing corruption， the anticorruption campaign can have a negative effect on economic growth. However， the level of corruption in China has been considerably reduced， implying that the anticorruption effort has been effective. This explains why the anticorruption campaign initiated after the Eighteenth CPC National Congress was not the cause of the economic slowdown. (3) In the long term， continuing the anticorruption campaign may reduce the level of corruption activities， and allow free market competition to replace corruption activities as the dominant force in allocating resources， thereby promoting longterm sustainable social and economic development.
Keywords： Anticorruption Effort; Level of Corruption; Sustainable Economic Growth
JEL Classification： K42， O11， H11
（期刊责任编辑：松木；校对：晓鸥）
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