[文萃]林僖、鲍晓华：区域服务贸易协定如何影响服务贸易流量

    原文标题：区域服务贸易协定如何影响服务贸易流量？——基于增加值贸易的研究视角
    内容提要：本文从增加值贸易的角度，基于WWZ（2013）方法测算了全球40个经济体的服务增加值贸易水平，利用WTO的区域服务贸易协定数据库构造了衡量协定开放度的服务行业覆盖率指标，运用Anderson & van Wincoop（2003）引力模型分析框架和泊松拟极大似然（PPML）估计技术，研究了区域服务贸易协定对服务出口的差异化促进效应。结果表明，区域服务贸易协定对服务总值和增加值出口均有显著的促进作用，且对于开放水平越高的协定，这种正面促进效应越强；但协定对外国增加值出口的影响程度大于国内增加值出口。进一步地，本文还对各国服务出口的结构特征做了分组分析，并考察了缔约环境异质性对区域服务贸易协定的服务出口促进效应的不同影响机制。本文为中国进一步推进区域服务自由化，提升在服务贸易全球价值链分工中的地位提供了实证支持和政策参考。
    关键词：区域服务贸易协定 服务贸易增加值 出口
    Effects of Regional Service Trade Agreements on Service Trade Flows：From the Perspective of Trade in Value Added
    LIN Xia and BAO Xiaohuab
    (a.School of Economics，Fudan University; b.School of International Business Administration，Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
    Summary：With the slowdown of the multilateral negotiations in the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the rise of the new regionalism，regional service trade agreements have become a realistic choice for all countries. The previous decade has witnessed a rapid growth in the number of regional service trade agreements. Meanwhile，the relevant contracting parties are no longer confined to the developed economies; they involve many emerging economies，which have the ambition to expand their service development space and obtain an increased market share to enhance their international competitiveness and status in the global labor division.
    However，only nine regional service trade agreements were concluded by China until 2011 with a relatively small number of contracting parties，which were mostly developing countries and accounted for only a relatively small part of China’s service exports. Therefore，the effects of such agreements on Chinese services export and its involvement in the division of labor in the global value chain are rather limited. Expanding the openness of service industries and developing a trade of services through regional service trade agreements can help China take the initiative in formulating new international trade rules and participate deeper in the global value chain， which is of critical importance in the present stage of the Chinese economy.
    In this study，we used the World Input Output Database and the Wang et al. method (commonly referred to as the WWZ method，2013) to estimate the service trade in value added in 40 economies from 1995 to 2011. Moreover，we used the regional service trade agreements data from the WTO regional trade agreement information system to construct the index of the service industry coverage. Then，we applied the gravity model developed by Anderson & van Wincoop (2003) and the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimation technique to investigate the effects of the regional service trade agreements on service exports.
    After controlling for the bilateral trade cost，supply shocks at the exporter level，and demand shocks at the importer level with fixed effects，we found that the regional service trade agreements had significant positive effects on both the total and added value of service exports. The effects increased with an increase in the openness of the agreements. However，the effects on foreign value added exports were greater than those on domestic exports. The promotion effects were significant in several robustness tests. Furthermore，from the perspective of the use of service products in importing countries，the effects of promotion on the total value and added value of service exports were mainly achieved by increasing the intermediate service exports. From the perspective of the decomposition of a value added service， the effects of promotion on the domestic value added exports were mainly achieved through the domestic value added exports created by an increase in the domestic service input.
    The results reported in this paper have several important implications for the trade policy of China. To promote the development of China’s trade in services and enhance the international competitiveness of service products and the status of the division of labor in the global value chain，the government must continue to deepen the reform of the market economy，ease the control on the service industry gradually，reduce the service industry access barriers，and encourage competition in the market. Moreover，the government must expand the openness of the service industry，rely on the construction of a free trade zone， and actively contract regional service trade agreements to increase the market space for domestic services trade.
    Keywords：Regional Service Trade Agreements; Trade in Service; Valued added Export
    作者简介：林僖，复旦大学经济学院；鲍晓华（通讯作者），上海财经大学国际工商管理学院。 
    项目：作者感谢国家自然科学基金项目（71673177、71273161）的资助。 
    期刊责任编辑：谢谦   校对：曹帅
    

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