[文萃]李兵、颜晓晨：中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势

    原文标题：中国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势——公共安全的视角
    内容提要：安定和平是经济发展与贸易繁荣的基石，然而日渐蔓延全球的恐怖主义活动对公共安全造成巨大威胁。本文使用1984—2014年全球双边贸易数据和全球恐怖袭击数据，运用引力模型分别考察了恐怖袭击对“一带一路”沿线国家出口和进口的影响。实证结果表明，恐怖袭击显著降低了“一带一路”沿线国家的出口和进口；相对其他国家而言，恐怖袭击对中国与“一带一路”沿线国家之间的贸易的负面影响较小，这一效果不仅与美国、日本和德国这样的贸易强国比较非常明显，而且也比墨西哥这样的发展中国家略微明显；这一效果在2003年伊拉克战争发生之前并不明显，但是在伊拉克战争之后更为明显。这一方面表明我国从事外经贸实务人员的勤劳勇敢、不惧死伤、勇于开拓进取的企业家精神，另一方面也表明我国“和平共处、互不干涉内政”的外交政策使得我们更少遭到恐怖袭击的侵害，这两个方面共同构成了我国与“一带一路”沿线国家双边贸易的新比较优势。但是，这种比较优势在中国与非洲国家和欧洲的OECD国家之间的贸易中不存在，在与拉丁美洲国家的贸易中，中国反而有比较劣势。本文的发现支持了我国的“一带一路”倡议。
    关键词：恐怖袭击 贸易 “一带一路”
    China’s New Comparative Advantage of Trading with Belt and Road Countries：Public Security Perspectives
    LI Bing and YAN Xiaochen
    (School of International Trade and Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics)
    Summary：The Belt and Road initiative was proposed by XI Jinping，President of the People’s Republic of China, in 2013. One Belt refers to the countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt， and One Road refers to the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road. These countries are not clearly defined by the Chinese government，but in general，Southeast Asian countries，middle Asian countries，Middle East countries，and some Eastern European countries are included in the One Belt and One Road countries，which are called Belt and Road for short. The Belt and Road initiative has become crucial，with the advent of the new normal stage of China’s economy and the deepening global trade.
    Other noteworthy features of the Belt and Road countries are frequent terrorist attacks，which lead to enormous suffering. However，international media have paid considerable attention to attacks in developed countries，such as the Paris attack on November 13，2015 and the explosion attack in Brussels on March 22， 2016， and little attention to the attacks in developing countries such as the Belt and Road countries. Based on the Global Terrorism Database，from 1984 to 2014， the ratio of terrorist attacks in the Belt and Road countries to the global terrorist attacks was 63%， and this proportion reached an astounding 83% after the Iraq War.
    To further explore the effects of terrorist attacks on bilateral trade between China and the Belt and Road countries，we used the workhorse in international trade，the gravity model， along with a cross country panel dataset and combined the terrorism index into the model. For the first time， we found that China had a peculiar feature compared with other countries，in that China could somehow immunize itself from terrorist attacks when trading with the Belt and Road countries; we called this China’s new comparative advantage over terrorist attacks.
    Furthermore，we investigated two potential mechanisms behind this comparative advantage. In the first mechanism， we added the American and Mexico interaction terms to compare with the interaction terms of China. We found that both the magnitude and significance of the American coefficients were smaller than those of their Chinese counterparts，thereby leading to the conclusion that the risk feature existed only in developing countries such as China and Mexico. In addition，we classified terrorist attacks according to attack types and targets，and explored China’s different behaviors when confronted with different types of terrorist attacks. The results show that China has a comparative advantage over the explosion attacks and a disadvantage over the kidnapping attacks，and that Chinese civilians take more risks than Chinese officials. In the second mechanism，the non interference foreign policy，we divided the sample into groups before and after the Iraq War and found that China showed a comparative advantage over terrorist attacks only after the Iraq War. Moreover，we replaced the Belt and Road countries with African countries， Latin American countries， and European OECD countries; our findings reveal that China did not have a comparative advantage over terrorist attacks when trading with these countries.
    Our findings show not only that countries behave heterogeneously against terrorist attacks during the trading process，but also constructive and far reaching policy implications. First，the comparative advantage of China over terrorist attacks when trading with Belt and Road countries indicates the realistic foundation of the Belt and Road initiative. Second，according to the second mechanism，China’s non interference foreign policy played a vital important role in the formation of this comparative advantage，in accordance with the proposal of China’s peaceful rise. Finally， the interferential foreign policies from the Western countries，particularly the U.S.， which were decorated with the slogan“human rights are superior to the sovereignty”，incurred revenge in the form of terrorist attacks to some extent，leading to a substantial loss of economic benefits.
    Keywords：Terrorism; Trade; Belt and Road
    作者简介：李兵，中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院；颜晓晨，中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院在校生。
    期刊责任编辑：谢谦  校对：王红梅
    

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