俞剑 方福前 等：中国农业劳动力转移研究

    原文标题：消费结构升级、要素价格扭曲与中国农业劳动力转移
    摘要：通过构建一个两部门动态一般均衡模型，本文主要研究消费结构升级、要素价格扭曲等因素对中国农业劳动力转移的影响。基于稳态的数值计算结果表明，上述因素对农业劳动力转移都有不同程度的正面影响。当所有因素同时改变0.1个单位时，消费结构升级对农业劳动力转移的影响程度最大，为4.63%，紧随其后的是部门间资本租金扭曲与部门技术进步，部门间工资扭曲的影响程度最弱，仅为0.84%。不仅如此，前三种因素对农业劳动力转移的影响都是非常显著的，这表明促成中国农业劳动力转移的主导原因是复合型的，这与美国经济城乡一体化进程中的情形有很大不同。
    关键词：动态一般均衡模型；消费结构；劳动力转移
    作者简介：俞剑，中央财经大学经济学院；方福前，中国人民大学经济学院；程冬，范德比尔特大学经济系博士候选人；郑文平，对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院。 
    项目：本文得到国家社科基金重大项目“中国经济自发展能力研究”（项目号：15ZDB133）、国家社科基金青年项目“中国居民消费结构转变对经济波动的影响研究”（项目号：16CJL012）资助 
    Household Consumption Upgrade, Factor Price Distortion and Rural-To-Urban Labor Migration in China
    Yu Jian,Fang Fuqian,Cheng Dong,Zheng Wenping
    Abstract:This paper constructs a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to investigate the mechanism of how each of the following factors influence China’s rural-to-urban labor migration, i.e., household consumption upgrade, sectorial capital rent distortion, and wage distortion. We also explore the relative contribution of each factor in a unified framework. Our steady-state numerical results show that each of the above factors has a positive impact on labor migration to a different extent. When all four factors deviate by 0.1 unit from the initial steady state, household consumption upgrade exhibits the largest impact by promoting 4.63% more labor migration. The capital rent distortion and technology progress come closely with 2.68% and 2.34% more migration while wage distortion has the weakest effect with only 0.84% more. The top three factors all have significant impact on labor migration, suggesting that the dominant reason for China’s rural-to-urban labor migration is essentially compound, which is significantly different from the United States case with just a single leading cause.
    Keywords:Dynamic General Equilibrium Model，Consumption Structure，Labor Migration
    JEL Classification:C61, E13, E24
     

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