[文萃]王丽艳 马光荣：财政转移支付显著促进获得地GDP增长人均转移支付每增加1%将导致人均GDP增加约1%

    原文标题：财政转移支付对地区经济增长的影响——基于空间断点回归设计的实证研究
    原文来源：《经济评论》2018年第2期
    内容提要：本文基于中国28个省份的县域层面统计数据，通过西部大开发这一自然实验以及空间断点回归方法研究了财政转移支付与经济增长之间的关系。研究发现，转移支付显著地促进了获得地的GDP增长，且人均转移支付每增加1%，将导致人均GDP增加约1%。为了解决GDP的统计质量问题，我们还利用各县市夜间灯光亮度作为经济增长的代理变量，转移支付的正向作用依旧存在。机制分析发现，转移支付显著地促进了县级政府的生产性财政支出，但是对教育、医疗等民生性公共服务的改善作用有限。本文的政策建议是，对经济落后地区的转移支付，除了支持地方基本建设外，还应加大对地方政府民生性公共品的提供和支持。
    关键词：转移支付 经济增长 空间断点设计
    The Impact of Transfer Payments on Regional Economic Growth
    ——An Empirical Analysis through Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design
    Wang Liyan and Ma Guangrong
    (School of Finance, Renmin University of China)
    Abstract: Using data from county-level of 28 provinces of China, We use the natural experiment of western development and the method of spatial regression discontinuity to study the influence of fiscal transfer payments on the regional economic growth of China. Studies show that transfer payments significantly contribute to the regional GDP growth. GDP growth will be boosted by 1%, if the transfer payments increase 1%. In order to solve the problem of statistical quality of GDP, we use the county-level light data to be the proxy variable for GDP, the relationship still exists. Mechanism analysis find that transfer payments mainly through the channel of increasing infrastructure investment to achieve economic growth but play a limited role to providing welfare public goods like education and health care. Policy suggestion of this paper is that transfer payments in the backward regions should not only be used for infrastructure construction, but also for providing and supporting the local government’s public goods.
    Keywords: Intergovernmental Transfer; Economic Growth; Spatial Regression Discontinuity Design
    作者简介：王丽艳，中国人民大学财政金融学院博士生；马光荣（通讯作者），中国人民大学财政金融学院副教授。
    基金：本文得到国家自然科学基金课题（“高铁的经济效应——市场力量与地方政府行为的双重作用”（项目号：71773125）和国家自然科学基金项目“财政转移支付对经济发展影响的微观机制”（项目号；71403278）的资助。
    期刊责任编辑：赵锐 彭爽
    

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