产业结构变迁与住宅价格关系实证研究来自中国内地的经验分析

    Empirical Study of the Relationship between Industrial Structure Change and Housing Prices： Evidence from the Chinese Mainland
    摘要：文章基于住宅价格变动中产业结构变迁影响及其内在机理的视角，通过构建产业结构合理化与高级化的理论测度，利用2002—2011年中国内地30个省区的面板数据，实证检验了产业结构变迁对住宅价格变动的影响。研究结果表明：产业结构合理化对住宅价格有显著正向影响，产业结构高级化也显著推动住宅价格上涨；在样本时期内，产业结构变迁对全国住宅价格上涨的贡献率为13．45％；产业结构合理化、高级化对住宅价格的影响呈现明显的区域差异，两者对东部、中部、西部住宅价格的影响效应依次递减；银行信贷、土地价格推高住宅价格，利率调整对房价的调控作用基本失效，人口规模、人均收入水平对住宅价格的影响因地区与时间而异。
    Based on the effects and inherent mechanism of industrial structure change in the process of changes in housing prices, this paper uses the panel data of 30 provinces in the Chinese mainland from 2002 to 2011 to empirically analyze the effects of industrial structure change on changes in housing prices by the construction of theoretical measurement of ra- tionalization and upgrading of industrial structure. It comes to the results as follows： firstly, the rationalization of industrial structure has significantly positive effect on housing prices, and the upgrading of industrial structure also obviously pushes up housing prices; secondly,during the sample period, industrial structure change makes a 13.45~//00 contribution to the in- crease in national housing prices; thirdly, the effects of rationalization and upgrading of in- dustrial structure on housing prices differ widely in regions, and the effects are in descending order in eastern, central and western China; fourthly, bank credit and land prices push up housing prices, and the adjustment to interest rates makes a basic failure on the control of housing prices, while the effects of population scale and income per capita vary with regions and time.
    关 键 词：产业结构变迁 住宅价格 系统广义矩估计
    industrial structure change housing price SYS-GMM
    分 类 号：F062.9F269.24
    参考文献：[1]周振华.产业结构优化论[M].上海：上海人民出版社,1992..
    [2]张红.房地产经济学讲义[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2004.
    [3]骆永民.城市化对房价的影响:线性还是非线性?-基于四种面板数据回归模型的实证分析[J].财经研究,2011(4):135-144.
    [4]克鲁格.发展中国家的贸易与就业[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1995.
    [5]Arellano M, Bover O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error components models [ J ].Journal of Econometrics, 1995,68 ( 1 ) : 29- 51.
    [6]Blundell R,Bond S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Journal of Econometrics,1998,87(1):115-143.
    [7]Bond S. Dynamic panel data models:A guide to micro data methods and practice[J].Portuguese Economic Journal, 2002,1 (2) : 141-162.
    [8]Boyle M A,Kiel K A.A survey of house price hedonic studies of the impact of environmental externalities [J].Journal of Real Estate Literature, 2001,9(2):117- 144.
    [9]Case K E,Shiller R J. Forecasting prices and excess returns in the housing market[J]. Real Estate Eco- nomics,1990,18(3) :253-273.
    [10]Clapp J M,Giaccotto C. The influence of economic variables on local house price dynamics[J]. Journal of Urban Economics,1994,36(2) :161-183.
    [11]Davis E P, Zhu H. Bank lending and commercial property cycles:Some cross-country evidence [J].Journal of International Money and Finance, 2011,30 ( 1 ) : 1 - 21 .
    [12]Fleming M C, Nellis J G. Development of standardized indices for measuring house price inflation incorpo- rating physical and locational characteristies[J].Applied Economies,1992,24(9):1067-1085.
        【阅读全文】