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[文萃]张勋 等：交通基础设施促进经济增长的路径
http://www.newdu.com 2018/4/4 《经济研究》2018年第1期 张勋 王旭… 参加讨论
原文标题：交通基础设施促进经济增长的一个综合框架
作者：张勋 王旭 万广华 孙芳城
内容提要：本文探讨交通基础设施促进经济增长的背后机制。为此，本文选取了企业库存这一角度展开分析。理论上，交通基础设施可以通过市场扩张、市场竞争和运输成本三种路径影响企业库存，进而促进经济增长。实证上，本文将考虑质量的公路面积数据与工业企业数据库合并，通过中介效应模型和行业划分的机制验证等方法，验证了这三种路径。与以往研究不同的是，本文发现市场扩张是交通基础设施影响经济增长的首要因素。本文的研究丰富了交通基础设施与企业库存关系的讨论。更为重要的是，本文在一个统一的框架下研究了交通基础设施主要通过何种路径促进经济增长，并对各路径的贡献进行了量化。本文验证了交通基础设施具有扩大企业规模，提高企业经营效率以及增强市场活力等作用，这些作用都体现了交通基础设施在经济增长中所起的重要角色。
关键词：基础设施 企业库存 市场扩张 运输成本 新结构经济学
A Unified Framework of Road Infrastructure’s Growth Effect
ZHANG Xun, WANG Xu, WAN Guanghua and SUN Fangcheng
Summary：We studied the effect of road infrastructure on economic growth through its effect on a firm’s inventory. Different from previous studies,we aim to build up a unified framework to analyze the growth effect of road infrastructure.
In this paper,we propose three hypotheses to test the underlying mechanisms through which road infrastructure affects inventory and thus contributes to economic growth. First, road infrastructure helps firms to expand their market, promotes output and sales, and increases demand for inventory. Second, road infrastructure brings about competition in the domestic market, which reduces the market expansion effect and the inventory demand. Third, road infrastructure reduces transportation cost, which on the one hand increases efficiency and on the other hand helps save inventory storage.
Empirically,we used data from the Annual Survey of Industrial Firms (ASIF) combined with road information. To analyze the transmission channels underlying the relationship of the road infrastructure and inventory,we used the mediation model and analyzed the effect of a change in the coefficient of the road infrastructure on the inventory upon the addition of the mediating variables. As the dependent variable,we used nonfinished goods as the inventory. For the road infrastructure variable, different from previous studies, we measured a firm’s accessible road infrastructure using the road area of both local and neighboring cities. The mediating variables included market size, competition, and transportation cost. For market size, we directly used the log of sales as a proxy. For competition, we used the cityindustryyear Herfindahl index. For transportation cost, we used the log of the input lead time. Input lead time was measured as 365/(cost of goods sold/accounts payable), which approximated the number of days it took for firms to source their inputs.
The baseline empirical results show that road infrastructure helps to reduce inventory. We used the mediating model to verify the underlying transmission channels. We found that once the market size variable was added to the baseline regression, the coefficient for road infrastructure was further reduced. Moreover, upon the regression of market size on the infrastructure, we found a positive relationship. These two findings suggest that the road infrastructure helped to increase the market size and thus increased the inventory demand. Similarly, once the competition and transportation cost variables were added, the coefficient for road infrastructure increased. Moreover, we found that road infrastructure led to competition and transportation cost reduction. These findings indicate that the channels of competition and transportation cost reduction induced by road infrastructure reduced inventory demand. The results confirm the three transmission channels through which road infrastructure affected inventory and economic growth.
We further verified the channels through which road infrastructure affected inventory and economic growth by conducting heterogeneous analysis and dividing the samples according to the different properties of the firms. We divided the samples by product heterogeneity to verify the market expansion channel, by entry barrier to verify the competition channel, and by weight per value of product to verify the transportation cost channel. We found that firms with higher heterogeneity, lower entry barriers, and more weight per value of product were more significant in the market expansion, competition, and transportation cost channels.
Finally, we conducted a robustness check by considering measurement error of the road infrastructure and definition of the entry barrier, incorporating the effect of the communication infrastructure and industrial dynamics, and the instrumental variable of road infrastructure by using the number of post houses in the Ming Dynasty. The results remained robust.
This paper enhances the literature by providing a unified framework for the relationship between road infrastructure and inventory and for estimating the causal effect on economic growth.
Keywords： Road Infrastructure; Inventory; Market Expansion; Transportation Cost; New Structural Economics
JEL Classification： E22, H54, R4
作者简介：张勋，北京师范大学统计学院金融统计系，上海新金融研究院；王旭，北京大学国家发展研究院，兴业经济研究咨询股份有限公司；万广华、孙芳城（通讯作者），重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心，重庆工商大学经济学院。
项目：本文受国家社科基金重点项目“动态公平视角下政府调整城乡收入分配格局的理论与政策路径研究”（项目批准号：13AJY006）、国家自然科学基金重点项目“兼顾效率与公平的中国城镇化：动力机制、发展路径和政策调整”（项目批准号：71133004）、国家自然科学基金资助项目“基础设施与包容性增长：理论与政策评估研究”（项目批准号：71603026）、全国统计科学研究重点项目“‘一带一路’背景下我国基础设施投资回报率的测算方法研究”（项目批准号：2017LZ21）和新结构经济学专项研究基金“基础设施与结构变迁研究”的资助。
致谢：作者感谢宋国青、黄益平、徐建国、欧阳尧、陆铭、汪浩、沈艳、徐现祥、黄少卿、罗知、李辉文、林建浩、张睿和匿名审稿人的宝贵建议，文责自负。
期刊责任编辑：陈小亮；校对：晓鸥
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